With the multitude of emerging technologies on the horizon, the task of choosing which innovations to invest in is challenging. Quantum sensing technologies, for example, have both high variety and many potential applications but the feasibility of their use is fraught with uncertainties. The critical question is how to approach these emerging technologies. Should you dive headfirst into developing prototypes, dedicate resources to extensive feasibility studies, or wait for breakthrough research to guide your decisions?
I propose a strategic approach that forms an alternative to the direct investment in high-risk, emerging technologies: the adoption of stepping stone technologies. This method involves investing in existing, related technologies that are more mature and have proven applications today, thereby positioning you to seamlessly transition to more advanced innovations in the future.
The Case for Stepping Stone Technologies
Consider quantum sensors again. A direct investment in cutting-edge technologies such as Rydberg Receivers may seem like a leap into the unknown. In a space application context, they might be relevant for deep space communication networks, spectrum monitoring or microwave radiometry and radar, but the low maturity makes it unclear if these promises will materialize. However, focusing on related, more established technologies like Alkali Vapor Magnetometers for Earth observation and planetary science or Optical Atomic Clocks for enhanced navigation satellite constellations, will be invaluable when the time comes to adopt more advanced quantum sensing solutions.
The benefits of this approach are twofold. First, it allows you to make immediate use of current technologies, opening up new opportunities, improved applications and revenue or funding streams. Second, it provides a strategic advantage in the eventual adoption of the other emerging technologies, as the experience gained from working with related, mature technologies and its supplier network can significantly lower the learning curve and associated risks.
Identifying Stepping Stone Technologies
The methodology for identifying stepping stone technologies is straightforward yet effective. It involves an investigation of the emerging technology’s architecture and core components for a possible decomposition. The next step is to identify existing technologies that utilize similar building blocks but are at a more advanced stage of maturity and application. By prioritizing these mature technologies based on your current priorities, you can begin to invest in the corresponding areas.
A Strategic Path Forward
The stepping stone approach offers a pragmatic pathway when you are looking to navigate the complexities of emerging technologies. By investing in related, more mature technologies, you can de-risk your innovation strategy, leverage current technological advancements, and position yourself at the forefront of future technological breakthroughs.
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